PUTTING THE GENIE BACK IN THE BOTTLE

President Barack Obama in Moscow for talks with Dmitry Medvedev, focusing on further reducing nuclear stockpiles—with deep cuts in current levels of nuclear warheads—follows eight years during which the relationship between the United States and Russia had devolved to the point of not being dissimilar to that which existed between the U.S. and the former Soviet Union.

Opposing forces in these two very prominent nuclear countries grew their stockpiles for fifty years, while gradually converging toward violent confrontation.

This took dramatic form in 1962 after discovery of Soviet ballistic missiles 90 miles off the coast of the United States on the island of Cuba. Recalled by history as the Cuban Missile Crisis, the world stood still on the brink of unthinkable catastrophe, as tensions escalated between the two military superpowers.

For a generation, it was the worst-case scenario.

Forty years later, under the Bush Administration, relations between Washington and Moscow almost returned to the Cold War.

Now, after a 3-hour talk in discussions to lower levels of both long-range missiles and nuclear warheads, a joint understanding signed in Moscow has the United States and Russia agreeing to a reduction of deployed nuclear warheads, bringing the total below 1,700 (each) within seven years of a new treaty, superseding the Start I Treaty signed in 1991 and due to expire this December.

The U.S. and Russia are said to be "committed to leaving behind the suspicion and the rivalry of the past," according to Mr. Obama.

That said, now there's the matter of North Korea.

WORST-CASE SCENARIO  North Korea delivered a verdict of 12 years hard labor for two American journalists after their three-month incarceration. The state media released an official report last month stating that Laura Ling and Euna Lee entered the country illegally to record material for a "smear campaign". Ling and Lee, who crossed the border illegally into the North, will be sent to a brutal labor camp where (according to North Korean defectors) detainees endure beatings, hunger and inhumane workloads.

 

The two women reporting for San Francisco-based Current TV on North Korean refugees’ flight into China…and the trafficking of women from the North into the country…admitted to committing “criminal acts” prompted by a politically motivated smear campaign.

 

 Also in play is the physical health of North Korea’s chairman of the National Defense Commission, Kim Jong-il, clouded by persistent rumors of a stroke last August. Clearly, the country’s head of state seems frail, appears gaunt and has aged rapidly, losing considerable weight with no formal assessment of his psychological well-being. Citing unidentified intelligence sources in South Korea and China, a news service reported that the 67-year-old leader has pancreatic cancer.

After weeks of terrifying, deafening silence Lisa Ling, a CNN contributing reporter and sister of Laura Ling, received a phone call. Her sibling from prison phoned, affirming illegally entering the country. Laura Ling admitted that she and colleague Euna Lee violated North Korean law and now need their government to help.The Americans' internment has so far pushed the United States and the reclusive communist nation to engage "back-door" diplomatic talks, while officially Secretary of State Hillary Clinton had sought the immediate release of the two prisoners (or detainees) on humanitarian grounds. But now the State Department is calling for "amnesty" on behalf of the two Americans.

Clearly much of the journalists’ ordeal is being driven by escalating tensions between Pyongyang and Washington over North Korea’s nuclear weapons program. The imprisonment of Lee and Ling follow a package of sanctions by the UN as the result of Pyongyang test-firings short and long-range missiles off the North Korean coast; and then following the sentencing of the American journalists, tensions heightened on the Korean peninsula as the North threatens U.S. and South Korean ships nearing its territorial waters.

No willingness whatsoever on the part of North Korea to negotiate its nuclear program, the six-nation talks aimed at curbing the country’s nuclear ambitions broke down and stalled when Pyongyang walked away from the conversation and restarted its disabled reactor. The communist regime then vowed to manufacture additional nuclear weapons, conduct more missile tests, and resolve to take military actions against any efforts to isolate the country. Word coming from the nation’s capital, Pyongyang, is that the country will weaponize its plutonium stocks and enrich its uranium. Sanctions by the United Nation’s Security Council recently voted upon expand and tighten economic measures taken in hopes of putting sufficient pressure on the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea to reconsider its position on nuclear nonproliferation. The North Koreans have stated that they will not give up their nuclear weapons until such time as there is worldwide nuclear disarmament—by all nations. Last month, the UN Security Council approved a resolution allowing inspection of air, sea and land shipments in and out of North Korea suspected of carrying banned arms and weapons-related materiel.

 President Barack Obama, without an obvious course of action while reassuring South Korea, views a nuclear-armed North Korea “a grave threat” and ordered the U.S. Navy to hail and request permission to inspect the North’s vessels at sea—without boarding by force—if there is suspected nuclear technology aboard. If the administration’s plan is executed, if these ships are intercepted, it does carries with it the risk of escalating tensions at a time when Pyongyang’s nuclear activities has stopped short of outright attack in the region.

 Described by the United States as "provocative," on April 5th North Korea launched a long-range rocket; May 25th conducted an underground nuclear test; May 26th fired short-range rockets; July 2nd four short-range cruise missiles launched. North Korea said it will treat any interception of its ships as a declaration of war. And then on the 4th of July (America’s Independence Day) Pyongyang launched a series of seven short-range missiles in less than seven hours, Scud-type ballistic missiles with a range of 500km (312 miles) in an apparent act of defiance. Of greater concern is that this launch has a longer range. North Korea did warn mariners to avoid an area in the Sea of Japan between June 24th and July 9th due to “firing” exercise as presented in a U.S. military communiqué. The U.S. Navy tracked the missiles, aware of such launches, closely monitoring the North’s activities, as their intention is to ratchet up tension on the Korean peninsula while attempting to retail nuclear arms against the financial squeeze of UN sanctions. Banned from all ballistic missile-related activities under sanctions by the UN—imposed after a second underground nuclear test in May—the missiles fired on Saturday morning came originated from a North Korea east coast launch site and landed in the Sea of Japan, also known as the East Sea. The media in Japan and South Korea report that North Korea may be preparing to launch an intercontinental ballistic missile—the Japanese media reported that North Korea has been preparing to launch a missile at Hawaii. Japanese journalists speculate the target could be Hawaii.

"Our military is fully ready to counter any North Korean threats and provocations," the Joint Chiefs of Staff advised the U.S. President and Congress. The fear is that North Korea will top off one of these missiles with a nuclear warhead. Not unlike the Cuban Missile Crisis in 1962 during the nascent Kennedy administration, this is a very dangerous time as the pressure mounts. No one can be sure how the erratic leadership of the ill Kim Jong-il may behave. So yes, the world is watching to see if these actions are related to troop movement (none so far) or related to strategies or operations to attack—Hawaii or anywhere else.

President Obama gave no indication what the United States would do militarily should North Korea launch a missile aimed at Hawaii. But it probably has Hollywood following the story with a scriptwriter’s imagination. Of course, they could make this stuff up, sure, but who would believe it…if it’s not a movie?  

A SCRIPTWRITER’S IMAGINATION 

“Normally, when you see a black man or woman president, an asteroid is about to hit the Statue of Liberty.”— Jon Stewart

A motion picture based on “true events” often ripped from the headlines has become proof of a story’s topicality in weaving a plot perfectly spun from well-timed currency into film fabric, embroidered with cinematic conceit then knitted into recognizable movie convention.  So as the United States stares down Pyongyang, whatever is lost in the din of real-life debate is made up for on the Big Screen (or DVD).  To thumbnail this nightmare scenario, a skillfully alert screenwriter might pitch Hollywood the following:

 

The Central Intelligence Agency has recently become suspicious of North Korea’s de facto leader Kim Jong-il; his motives behind a rumored missile attack upon the island-state of Hawaii are enormously troubling and impossible to dismiss.

The United States has exercised control over the North based on accommodation, compromise and appeasement in exchange for political and economic consideration.  For his part, Jong-il despises the U.S. with a nurturing disdain that has formed deep-seated longing for global domination at any price, characterized not by genuine ideology but personal vanity at odds with the West and repurposed for Jong-il’s misguided worldview in a pathological grab for even more power.

At first it appears that Jong-il is obsessively stockpiling nuclear arms for illicit trade; and every indication that his regime may be retailing advanced weaponry from robust stores of nuclear inventory cached inside the country’s secret weapons program. But there are complications. Nuclear weapons are a difficult matter of not only mass destruction but also great intimidation together with the megalomania and wrath of Kim Jong-il. The enterprise appears to threaten South Korea—to turn Seoul into a “sea of fire” unless there is unification with the North. But the real design is worse. Jong-il’s true aspiration is a zealot’s mission and purpose, a threat to regional peace and security.  

Washington fights a rear-guard action with Beijing and Moscow calling for calm, eager to tamp down talk of confrontation. And yet with no game plan, the U.S. is unsure of what it can attain from strong statements of condemnation.

No trust in Pyongyang and no confidence that diplomacy will lead to a solution persuades prudent assessment. Marshalling intelligence (by whatever means necessary) the U.S. learns that North Korea has achieved production-scope capability to produce weapons-grade uranium—and Jong-il oozing the drool of a Machiavellian nihilist. This militaristic psycho holds a terrible secret.  Effectively consolidating then concentrating his lust for power, Jong-il only course of action must be war.  Animus will stop at nothing to accomplish some demonic plan.

What has been set into motion is ostensibly a scheme to reunite North Korea with the south through warfare, however with an elusive purpose. Jong-il’s territorial ambitions are far beyond imagining—seeking the conquest of Japan.  His zeal will ultimately have North Korea attack the United States (as in World War II) by way of Hawaii…and soon, thereafter, set upon an apocalyptic course where the world is the target, time is the enemy...

...and can World Word 3.0 be stopped?

 

IT'S ONLY A MOVIE ...maybe...but certain one that could handicap the United States for an ugly, uneven victory. Odds are long that the bad guy is going to win this one. Doubtlessly, with an assortment of high-tech weapons, the U.S. is expected to triumph with a deft touch and a kind of valor that could not possibly exist outside the movies.

What could possibly be wrong with this picture? Okay, a reality check: in reality, as Pentagon officials carefully monitor the situation, can the United States successfully defend itself in a worst-case scenario? Will missile interceptors work properly? Will radar equipment not glitch? And is our preparedness enough to protect the American people and U.S. territory?

With forced calm and no usable diplomacy to lift the weight of the universe, the U.S. government continues to track North Korean ships without specifically knowing if “proliferation material” is in fact on board. But, honestly, you can't make this stuff up.

POST-SCRIPT:

Former U.S. President William Jefferson Clinton, on a private mission to North Korea visited Pyongyang as news comes that the nation's leader, Kim Jong-il has issued a special pardon to two detained, American journalists found guilty of entering the country illegally.

The order grants a special pardon to the two female American journalists who had been sentenced in March of this year.

News that Laura Ling and Euna Lee had been pardoned came hours after former President Clinton as special envoy sent by President Barack Obama's administration met with Kim Jong-Il to appeal for the release of the American journalists, averting an escalation of tensions between the two countries and a potential worst-case scenario.

 

Frederick Louis Richardson

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